Jack's Free Pick Monday: Syracuse +5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Syracuse Orange after losing three of their last four with a 4-point home loss to UNC and a 4-point road loss at Miami.  The Orange will be out for revenge from a 66-73 loss at Virginia in their first meeting this season on January 7th.  I like their chances of staying within 5 points in the rematch at home and possibly pulling off the upset.

We'll also 'sell high' on the Cavaliers, who have won six consecutive games coming in while covering four of their last five against the spread.  Five of those six wins came by 10 points or fewer, so it's not like they are running away from teams.  They don't play a style that allows them to get margin.

Syracuse is 9-4 at home this season with three of the four losses coming by 4 points or less.  So they have only lost once at home by more than this 5-point spread.  The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Virginia is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a win by 15 points or more.  Bet Syracuse Monday.

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15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Dallas Mavericks have been getting respect all season that has been unwarranted.  They are 26-25 SU but just 17-32-2 ATS this season.  They are just 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are without second-leading scorer Christian Wood right now, plus Luka Doncic is questionable with an ankle injury.  I like the Pistons at this number whether or not Doncic plays.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pistons, who have gone 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They pulled off the 130-122 upset win at Brooklyn as identical 8.5-point dogs in their last road game.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 4th game in 11 days tonight.  Detroit pulled the 131-125 upset as 8-point home dogs to the Mavericks in their first meeting this season.

Detroit is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing 5 or fewer games in 14 days.  Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when revenging a loss as a favorite of 7 points or more.  Bet the Pistons Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most undervalued team in the NBA for two seasons running now.  That has especially been the case of late as the Thunder are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with all three losses coming by 5 points or fewer.  They are showing tremendous value catching 5.5 points at home to the Golden State Warriors tonight.

The Warriors have been dreadful on the road this season going 6-18 SU & 8-16 ATS away from home.  They play zero defense on the highway, allowing 122.9 points per game on 49% shooting.  The Thunder are 15-10 SU & 16-9 ATS at home this season and scoring 119.4 points per game on 48% shooting.

The Warriors are 2-10 ATS in road games following a win this season.  Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good offensive teams that average 116 or more points per game.  The Thunder are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings PK

I love the spot for the Sacramento Kings tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 110-117 road loss at Minnesota on Saturday.  Now they get their shot at revenge here two days later and are the fresher team by far.

While the Kings will only be playing their 2nd game in 5 days, the Timberwolves will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 11th game in 18 days.  This is a clear letdown spot for the Timberwolves after just beating the Kings, plus it's a lookahead spot with the defending champion Warriors on deck Wednesday.  I expect the Kings to give an A-plus effort and the Timberwolves to be flat tonight.

Plays on road teams (Sacramento) - revenging a loss, while also off two or more consecutive upset losses as favorites are 42-21 (66.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Kings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Kings Monday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on UNLV/Colorado State UNDER 143.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  Colorado State beat UNLV 82-81 (OT) on January 14th just over two weeks ago.  That game was tied 70-70 at the end of regulation for 140 combined points.  I think the rematch stays UNDER 143.5 combined points as long as we don't get OT again.

I don't expect the Rams to shoot as well as they did in that first meeting, either.  They shot 50.8% as a team and 43.7% from 3-point range with 14 made 3-pointers.  They rank just 219th in the country in adjusted tempo and will slow it down playing at home tonight.

UNLV is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games when playing a losing team that wins 40% to 49% of their games.  This number has simply been inflated due to that first meeting going to OT.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boise State -7.5

The Boise State Broncos have been destroying teams of late.  They are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 points at New Mexico as 2.5-point underdogs.  They beat Utah State by 23 at home, UNLV by 18 on the road, Wyoming by 17 on the road, Nevada by 15 at home, Fresno by 10 at home and Colorado State by 21 at home.

Each of Boise State's last six wins have come by double-digits against some very good competition, and now they actually take a step down in class here against Air Force.  The Falcons are 3-6 in their last nine games overall with five losses by 8 points or more.  I don't see them offering much resistance here against the Broncos, either.

Boise State won 85-59 at Air Force last season.  The Broncos are 9-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.  Boise State is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games vs. poor foul drawing teams that attempt 18 or fewer free throws per game.  The Broncos are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Boise State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Kentucky -7.5

The Kentucky Wildcats are playing up to their potential finally in going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss to Kansas, which came up with clutch 3 after clutch 3 over the weekend to escape with a victory.  They won by 16 at Vanderbilt, upset Tennessee by 7 as double-digit road dogs, beat Georgia by 14 and Texas A&M by 9 at home.

Now the Wildcats actually take a step down in class here against Ole Miss and this one has blowout written all over it with the way the Rebels are going right now.  Indeed, Ole Miss is 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall with its lone win come against South Carolina, the worst team in the SEC.  They lost by 22 at Oklahoma State, by 12 at home to Missouri, by 12 at Arkansas, were upset at home by Georgia, lost by 9 at home to Auburn, by 10 at Mississippi State, by 22 at Alabama nd were upset as 22.5-point home favorites to North Alabama during this stretch.

Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Rebels are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing 80 points or more.  Ole Miss is 0-7 ATS vs. a team that wins 60% to 80% of their games this season.  Bet Kentucky Tuesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on West Virginia/TCU UNDER 144

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  West Virginia just beat TCU 74-65 for 139 combined points less than two weeks ago on January 18th.  Both teams shot well in that game, too as the Mountaineers shot 46.3% while the Horned Frogs shot 52.4%.  The teams combined for 39 made free throws on 52 attempts as well.

Mike Miles Jr. scored 21 points in that first meeting for TCU.  Well, the Horned Frogs won't have their best player in Miles Jr. (18.1 PPG) for the rematch after suffering a knee injury against Mississippi State over the weekend.  He runs the show for them and is tremendous in transition.  The Horned Frogs won't be looking to push the tempo nearly as much without him.

West Virginia and TCU have combined for 144 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings, making for a 6-0-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 144-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +15.5

Vanderbilt has been a tremendous bet as a road underdog.  The Commodores are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs this season with two outright upsets and not a single loss by more than 9 points.  They lost by 3 at Missouri as 8.5-point dogs, by 9 at Tennessee as 16.5-point dogs and by 6 at Texas A&M as 9.5-point dogs.  They can stay within 15.5 points of Alabama tonight.

The Crimson Tide beat the Commodores 78-66 at Vanderbilt as 9-point favorites in their first meeting this season on January 17th.  I always like backing the road underdog in the rematch after losing the first meeting.  Vanderbilt shot 30.1% as a team and 6-of-33 (18.2%) from 3-point range in that first meeting and still only lost by 12.  I'd have to expect them to improve their shooting in the rematch.

The Commodores are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 road games.  Vanderbilt is 21-5-1 ATS in its last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Alabama is 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 home games.  The road team is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  The underdog is 20-7-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings.

The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Vanderbilt is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games revenging a loss where opponents scored 75 points or more.  The Commodores are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games following a loss by 6 points or less.  Alabama is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 90 points or more.  These four trends combined for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Commodores.  Bet Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* Pelicans/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on New Orleans +7

This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the New Orleans Pelicans.  They have lost seven consecutive games coming in.  They will want revenge from a 98-99 home loss to the Nuggets on January 24th just a week ago.  I love the value we are getting on the Pelicans tonight catching 7 points in the rematch.

It's not like the Nuggets are playing much better.  They are 1-3 SU in their last four games overall with their lone victory coming by a single point.  That includes an upset home loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They have only won one of their last five home games by double-digits.

The Pelicans are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Denver.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.