Alex Smart Alex Smart
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Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 06, 2023
Red Sox vs Guardians
Red Sox
+110 at YouWager
Play Type: Premium

The Red Sox will send left-hander fire baller James Paxton (1-1, 4.26 ERA) to the hill in the series opener. He allowed one run and struck out eight over five innings in a no-decision against the Cincinnati Reds last week. Paxton had pitched a total of 21 2/3 innings in his  previous three seasons due to a number of injuries, but looks now to be back in top form and health. He has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his first four outings this season, while recording 27 strikeouts in 19 innings and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well against the light hitting guardians.BOSTON is 18-4  against the money line vs. sub standard power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons.

Note:Cleveland starting right-hander Shane Bieber (4-3, 3.72 ERA), enters this game in a bit of a funk after allowing seven runs over four innings against the Baltimore Orioles last week.Bieber has  recorded a  3-3 record along with a bloated 5.50 ERA in six career tilts  (five starts) vs. BoSox and is fade material here today.The Red Sox offense rank  top-eight  against right-handed pitching.

Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League Central.Red Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Guardians are 1-4 in their last 5 games following an off day.

Guardians are 1-11 in their last 12 Tuesday games.

Red Sox are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jun 06, 2023
Fever vs Sky
-6 -110 at circa
Play Type: Premium

 My WNBA sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 27 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. 

Play on the Sky to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 06, 2023
Mariners vs Padres
OVER 7½ -105 Lost
Play Type: Premium

I know both these offenses have been less than consistent this season, but my pitcher vs power rankings suggest this Totals line offers value for over bettors based on my projections that suggest runs output to be closer to  8.3 . Seattles starting pitcher GILBERT is 15-4 OVER  in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.9 rpg scored. 

Padres starting right handed  hurler  MUSGROVE is 16-6 OVER  at home when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 8.6 rpg scored. 

Over is 21-6 in Mariners last 27 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter like Musgrove.

SEATTLE is 16-4 OVER  vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored.

SEATTLE is 21-9 OVER after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 9.3 rpg scored. 

Over is 15-5-1 in Padres last 21 vs. American League West.Over is 33-15-3 in Padres last 51 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.

MLB Road teams (SEATTLE) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100   or better over his last 10 games are 37-8 OVER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored. 

Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings in San Diego.

Play over

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 06, 2023
Mariners vs Padres
+120 at Ace
Play Type: Premium

Seattles starter GILBERT is 15-4  against the money line in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) GILBERT is 9-1) against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). GILBERT is 19-7 against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Padres are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like the Seattles starter Gilbert. Im betting Gilbert has a decent night, vs a    Padres squad that has the seventh-lowest scoring offense in the majors, averaging 4.10 runs per game while rankings) 21st in OPS+ 96. 

I know the Mariners are not much better, but it must be noted the Padres starter Musgrove,  is just  3-10  against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse in his career. (Team's Record)SEATTLE is 25-10  against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons. 

Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League West.Mariners are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Mariners are 7-2 in their last 9 games following an off day.Mariners are 12-4 in their last 16 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.

SAN DIEGO is 6-12  against the money line in home games in night games this season.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a bad team (38-46%) are 37-13 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Mariners 


Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit).