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Alex Smart Alex Smart
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 23, 2017
Nationals vs Mets
OVER 7 +112 Won
$112
Play Type: Premium

Nationals RH Max Scherzer (2-1, 1.37 ERA) vs. Mets RH Zack Wheeler (1-1, 5.52)

I wont be surprised if Washington all by themselves help eclipse this Total. Zack Wheeler  gave up eight runs and 10 hits over 9 2/3 innings in his first two starts of the season after missing two years due to Tommy John surgery. He pitched well last  time out vs a inconsistent Philies offense, but against this explosive  Nationals Im betting on a different story unfolding. Note:WHEELER is 8-0 OVER L/8 in home games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing and is  2-6 with a 5.09 ERA in eight career starts against the Nationals.Meanwhile, I know the Mets ave been struggling but I'm also betting that they do just enough damage against Scherzer to help us get over this totals number.

Over is 10-1 in Nationals last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Over is 4-1 in Scherzers last 5 starts vs. National League East. Over is 3-0-2 in Mets last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 5-2-1 in Wheelers last 8 starts overall.Over is 3-1-1 in Wheelers last 5 starts vs. Nationals.

MLB teams where the total is 7 or less like the Nationals  - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in April games are 38-16 OVER for a 71% conversion rate for betting backers.

  Play OVER  1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 23, 2017
Celtics vs Bulls
OVER 204 -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - CHI Leads 2-1

Boston has scored 100 or more points in 13 of their L/15 overall and allowed 100 or more points in 12 of those 15 tilts. Prior to their last trip the court, the Bulls had scored 102 or more ppg in 6 straight, and tonight I expect they will be more ready to run and gun than they were last time out. My own data chart suggests an upward pace trend in this game,  which will result in a much higher scoring affair than the linesmakers expect.  

CHICAGO is 8-1 OVER  on Sunday games this season with an average of 212.4 ppg going on th scoreboard. Over is 7-2-1 in Celtics last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 23, 2017
Celtics vs Bulls
Bulls
+2½ -115 at Bovada
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

The Boston Celtics arrived in Chicago for game 3 of this series and turned their play around by getting themselves back into their Eastern Conference playoff series with the Bulls with a lopsided 104-87 win. The series now stands at 2-1 . However, despite of that big game last time out, Im now betting on the  Bulls coming back and getting back into a groove in game 4. My own numbers alos suggest tthere is value backin the home underdog. 

CHICAGO is 28-18 ATS  as an underdog this season and s 22-9 ATS  in home games after a loss by 10 points or more and also 13-4 ATS  L/17 after scoring 90 points or less. 

NBA Home underdogs the Bulls  - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 122-77 ATS. 

Play on chicago to cover 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 23, 2017
Rockets vs Thunder
Rockets
+1 -105 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 2-1


According to my own numbers the wrong team is favored here. I know Oklahoma city is at home , and played the Rockets tough in the last two games in this series including a very close win last time out . But after watching the Thunder blow a big lead last time out, and be fortunate enough to get a victory, Im betting their exhausted legs will not deal well with a explosive Rockets side that can run and gun with the best teams in the league.
HOUSTON has covered 13-4 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season and get the nod again today.OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-15 ATS L/22 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game.

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 like the Thunder - lower tier defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are just 27-62 ATS in their follow up game for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season.


Play on the Houston Rockets to cover 1 unit reg selection (LATE STEAM)   

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 23, 2017
Blue Jays vs Angels
UNDER 8 -105 Tie
Play Type: Premium

Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (1-2, 4.05 ERA) vs. Angels RH Daniel Wright (0-0, 6.75)

Toronto is batting .213 vs right handed pitchers this season averaging 3 rpg, while, the Angels are averaging 3.6 pg vs righties, via .237 BA. Both bullpens have proved capable this season, and todays starting pitchers have some value for extended innings according to my own power rankings. TORONTO is 28-14 UNDER vs. a team with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better with a combined average of 7.8 rpg going on the soreboard.TORONTO is 15-4 UNDER  in road games in April games dating back to last season.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 23, 2017
Giants vs Rockies
UNDER 11½ -105 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Giants RH Jeff Samardzija (0-3, 6.16 ERA) vs. Rockies LH Kyle Freeland (1-1, 4.91)

This wager is based on math rather than the current form of both these staring hurlers. Colorados Coors field has  reputation as launching pad,  so lines-makers playing to public perceptions usually shade in a way that gives under bettors some value. With a slight edge today according to my own numbers I'm betting on this score not eclipsing the total. 

Under is 13-2-2 in Samardzijas last 17 starts overall.Under is 7-2-2 in Samardzijas last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 5-2-1 in Samardzijas last 8 road starts.Under is 12-4 in Rockies last 16 overall.Under is 11-3 in Rockies last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-0 in Samardzijas last 5 starts vs. Rockies.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 23, 2017
Indians vs White Sox
UNDER 8 -105 Tie
Play Type: Premium

Indians RH Danny Salazar (1-1, 3.57 ERA) vs. White Sox LH Derek Holland (1-2, 2.16)

Cleveland starter Salazar has been over powering with his stuff early this season and registered some big strikeout numbers in all three of his starts.  Note:Chicago has four hitters with a batting average of .214 or worse - three under .200 - in  the top five spots, and my projections have them struggling today. Meanwhile,  the Pale Hose starter Holland pitched 6 scoreless innings in his first meeting against the Tribe back in April and  6-1 with a 2.35 ERA in 10 career starts against the Indians. With that said, I expect both these hurlers to go deep into this game today, and give us quality innings, which in turn will help keep this score on the low side of the number. 

Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 road games.Under is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 home games.Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 11-3 in White Sox last 14 overall.Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.Under is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings in Chicago.

Play UNDER  1unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 23, 2017
Cubs vs Reds
OVER 9 +104 Won
$104
Play Type: Premium

Cubs RH John Lackey (1-2, 4.00 ERA) vs. Reds RH Bronson Arroyo (1-2, 8.40)

Lackey  is not in great from early this season, and is  1-2 with a 4.96 ERA in six outings at Great American Ball Park. Meanwhile, Arroyo the Reds veteran  Starter is on his last days in this league at 40 years old, and while capable is still far from dependable, and could easily get crushed by the Cubs explosive offense. With that said, I'm betting on this combined score to eclipse the total .

Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 overall.Over is 4-0 in Lackeys last 4 road starts.Over is 5-0-1 in Arroyos last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. ver is 4-0 in Lackeys last 4 starts vs. Reds.Over is 38-15-3 in the last 56 meetings in Cincinnati.Over is 6-1 in home plate umpire Eddings' last 7 games behind home plate

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 23, 2017
Braves vs Phillies
Phillies
+100 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Braves RH Mike Foltynewicz (0-2, 4.26 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Zach Eflin (0-0, 3.60)

The Phillies are hitting .297 with runners in scoring position in their past 14 games and rode Maikel Franco’s bases-loaded 10th-inning single to a 4-3 victory Saturday and look to be in good form.  Meanwhile, the Phillies starter owns a bloated 6.00 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) against the Phillies, allowing four homers in 10 2/3 innings and will once again I am betting be on the wrong side of the final score this Sunday .Braves are 6-13 in Foltynewiczs last 19 road starts.Braves are 1-7 in their last 8 road games.Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 overall. Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. 

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 23, 2017
Red Sox vs Orioles
Orioles
-112 at betonline
Lost
$112.0
Play Type: Premium

Red Sox LH Eduardo Rodriguez (0-1, 4.76 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Kevin Gausman (1-1, 7.23)

Bostons offense is struggling and were shutout yesterday and Im betting things won't get much beer today vs a Baltimore side that has won 6 of their L/7 home games this season.

 Red Sox are 3-11 in their last 14 road games.Red Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.Orioles are 9-1 in Gausmans last 10 home starts.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 23, 2017
Mariners vs A's
A's
-121 at betonline
Lost
$121.0
Play Type: Premium

Mariners RH Yovani Gallardo (0-2, 6.19 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Andrew Triggs (3-0, 0.00)

Gollardo the Mariners starter has struggled for the most part this season and is just  0-5 with a 5.29 ERA in six career starts against the Athletics and looks like fde material here today. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent from the A's Triggs has a career 1.93 ERA in 14 games (six starts) at home and has not allowed a run in 17 1/3 innings this season . Oakland starters have allowed two runs or fewer in eight of the last 11 contests and look to be an under rated commodity to this point in the season. Oakland has won 5 straight games, and today I recommend we ride their momentum. 

Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 road games. Mariners are 3-16 in their last 19 games after losing the first 3 games of a series.Mariners are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings.

Play on Oakland As to win on the money-line 1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Apr 23, 2017
Senators vs Bruins
Senators
+137 at betonline
Won
$137
Play Type: Premium
    Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - OTT Leads 3-2

After being down 2-0 in game 5 of this series, the Bruins miraculously rebounded and won by a 3-2 count in OT to avert elimination from the play offs. In 9 meetings this season that was only the Bruins 2nd victory. Now after exerting a tremendous amount of energy in the last game, I'm betting the banged up Bruins won't have as much left in the tank, here in game 6 , which will result in what will be the the Sens 6th straight win in Beantown.

Bruins are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on the Ottawa Senators to win on the money-line   
SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.