10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Turns out the Jazz aren’t infallible after all as they just dropped a game in Miami Friday, 124-116 as 6.5-point favorites. Now they did immediately bounce back with a 124-109 road win against sorry Orlando. With that win and cover, Utah is now an incredible 23-3 SU and 22-4 ATS its last 26 games. But as I’ve written before, maybe we shouldn’t be *THAT* surprised about the team’s SU record considering it has gone off as the favorite in all but two games this season. 

Now the ATS record is clearly impressive and there’s no denying the Jazz have been the league’s best team to this point. They’ve outscored the opposition by 9.7 PPG. However, can they possibly continue covering the spread at this rate? I don’t think so. Tonight they are laying a hefty number to a Pelicans team that I feel is better than its overall record. New Orleans is off B2B close losses, both on the road, against Milwaukee and San Antonio. They are now just 11th in the Western Conference and five games below .500. 

Given that the Pelicans’ were the 8-seed in LY’s playoffs and expected to be better in 2020-21, their current standing has to be considered a disappointment. But, once again, I believe they are better than the record shows. Zion Williamson has been a beast and the team posted the league’s best offensive efficiency rating in the month of February. Now defense has been a much different story and facing the league’s most prolific three-point shooting team doesn’t sound like a good matchup. However, I believe the Pelicans will score enough tonight to “keep pace.” Take the points. 10* New Orleans

8* Oregon (9:00 ET): Oregon has taken 9 of the last 11 meetings from Arizona, including six straight. Each of the last three have been really close, however don’t look for that to be the case tonight. It all boils down to motivation as Arizona is playing its final game due to a postseason ban. Oregon is rolling right now (won 7 of 8) and trying to lock down the top seed for the Pac 12 Tournament. Tonight should be a much easier win for the Ducks than it was in Tucson a few weeks ago. Lay the points. 

Oregon just completed a three-game road trip on Saturday with a 74-63 win over Cal as nine-point chalk. They led wire to wire. The team’s only loss in its last eight games came at the start of the road trip, exactly one week ago at USC. There’s no shame in that loss. Ever since putting the COVID issues behind them, the Ducks have really looked great and I consider them to be the third best team in the league, behind Colorado and USC. They are 9-2 here at home where they allow only 62.8 PPG. 

Arizona is 5th in the Pac 12, which is an accurate representation of where they are at in the conference pecking order. They come into tonight on a three-game win streak, which includes a win at USC, but the other two victories were against Washington State and Washington. They only won by one (75-74) on Saturday and that was against perhaps the worst team in the conference. The game-winner came with just 5.2 seconds remaining. While the Wildcats usually dominate the glass, that wasn’t the case in the 1st game with the Ducks. 8* Oregon

10* Over UMass/Saint Louis (6:00 ET): It’s been a really challenging regular season for both of these teams, even by 2020-21 standards. For UMass, the season did not even get underway until December 11th and they’ve only gotten 12 games in. Still, the Minutemen are set to finish with a winning record for the first time in six years. Saint Louis was once considered a Top 25 team, but a LONG pause in its season (played only one game in January) really seems to have set them back. No longer are the Billikens a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and they need a strong finish, not just here, but in the A-10 Tourney as well. 

Something else these teams have in common is lots of Unders. Saint Louis has gone Under in its last seven games while UMass is 5-0 Under its last five. The Minutemen are off a 75-69 loss at Richmond where they never led and shot just 25.9% from three-point range. It was only their second loss in the last seven games though. Saint Louis won on Friday, ironically against Richmond, 72-67 as they not only shot exceptionally well (54.5% from 3-pt range), but also played great defense (held Richmond to 24 first half points). 

Despite the recent rash of Unders from both teams, I see this one sneaking Over the total. UMass has five double digit scorers and is averaging 76.8 points per game. Saint Louis averages 78.9 PPG at home. The Billikens may not shoot the ball as well here as they did in their last game, but the Minutemen should see improved shooting from their performance against Richmond. Saint Louis is also a beast on the boards and should get plenty of second chance opportunities tonight. The Over is 6-0 in UMass’ last six Monday games. 10* Over UMass/Saint Louis