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Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 04, 2021
Heat vs Pelicans
OVER 227 -110 Lost
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Over Heat/Pelicans (8:35 ET): I realize that Miami sometimes can be a low-scoring team (finished with just 80 points Tuesday vs. Atlanta), but New Orleans’ games almost always end up being high-scoring and that’s how I think this one will end up. The Pelicans have seen 11 of their last 12 games stay Under the total. The exception was a 117-114 loss to San Antonio where the O/U line was 232. That is the only time in the last seven games NO failed to score at least 120 points. 

Miami has been held to 85 points or less six different times this year, which is the most in the entire league. But the 80 they scored Tuesday marked a new season-low as they couldn’t hit “water from a boat” early on, especially from behind the arc. They missed 13 of their first 15 three-point attempts and were never really in the game. You’ve gotta expect better shooting tonight, even if Bam Adebayo and/or Jimmy Butler sit. It helps that they are facing a Pelicans team that is 29th in defensive efficiency and lets teams hit nearly 40% from 3-pt range. 

New Orleans is also coming off a loss, theirs by a score of 128-124 to Chicago. The fact the Pelicans have scored 120 or more in seven of their last nine games, but gone only 4-5 SU should tell you all you need to know about their defensive capabilities. Not surprisingly, they have the highest Over percentage in the league. The Heat are 5-1 Over following a double digit loss at home. 8* Over Heat/Pelicans

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 04, 2021
Warriors vs Suns
OVER 224½ -108 Lost
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Over Warriors/Suns (10:05 ET): Golden State has now lost two in a row. They usually come up big in this spot and by “usually,” I actually mean “always” as they’ve yet to lose three games in a row at any point this season. Ironically, these B2B defeats came on the heels of the Dubs’ first three-game WIN streak of the season. They fell last night in Portland 108-106. That they weren’t able to score more points against a bad defensive team like the Blazers has to be viewed as terribly disappointing.

Building off last year’s perfect run in the NBA “bubble” the Suns are definitely a team you want to pay attention to in the Western Conference. Winners of 15 of their last 18 games, including the last three, they are now in second place ahead of both the Clippers and Lakers. They just beat the Lakers 114-104 on Tuesday. It was the third straight game and fifth time in the last six that they held the opposition to 104 or lower. That’s really impressive, but six of their last eight games (including vs. the Lakers) have still gone Over. 

The Under is 6-0 the L6 times these teams have met. The most recent meeting took place in late January and saw Phoenix win 114-93. Golden State had a dreadful shooting night there, but I expect better from them tonight as they are still quite capable of a big night, like when they made over 60% against Charlotte last week. Outside of Steph Curry, no one stepped up last night. Expect a player or two to step up here and Phoenix is shooting 50% its L5 games. 8* Over Warriors/Suns

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 04, 2021
Arizona State vs Colorado
Arizona State
+10½ -115 at linepros
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Arizona State (9:00 ET): FYI - this game will be broadcast on ESPN2. Arizona State and Colorado both come into tonight on three-game winning streaks. However, that’s where the similarities end as the season has gone MUCH better for the Buffaloes. I’ve previously stated that I think CU is probably the best team in the Pac 12. However, if there is a “bone to pick” in Boulder, it’s that the Buffs oftentimes “play down” to their competition. Coming off wins over USC and UCLA, I think that might be the case here. 

Arizona State has had a dreadful season at the betting window as they are 4-16 ATS. But the Sun Devils have not only won three straight, but also six of their last nine games. The last three were all in Tempe and they were favored against Washington twice and Washington State last Saturday. They failed to cover the last two, so they’re now 0-9 ATS the L9 times they’ve been favored. But it’s a pretty big number they’re GETTING here tonight and I like it as the Sun Devils have suffered only three double digit losses since 2021 began. 

This is also Colorado’s final regular season game (ASU has one more, at Utah) and they’ve already clinched a 1st round bye in the Pac 12 Tournament. So the tendency for a “let down” is even more prevalent. It’s not like Senior Night means what it normally does. The Buffaloes have already lost to Cal and Washington as a big favorite and while those came on the road, they are still just 1-7 ATS when facing a team with a losing record past the 15-game mark in the L3 seasons. 10* Arizona State

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Mar 04, 2021
Bucks vs Grizzlies
+6 -105 at BetCris
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): This year’s Bucks team just doesn’t seem as strong compared to the previous two seasons. They are third in the Eastern Conference and were just trounced (at home) by Denver, 128-97, Tuesday night. I concede that there are several underlying metrics that indicate Milwaukee is still the best team in the East. They’ve won five in a row before the Nuggets loss. But they have a losing record on the road (7-9 SU/6-10 ATS) and tonight they are in Memphis. 

The Grizzlies have won B2B games to get back over the Mendoza Line. They are 16-15 SU on the season and in ninth place in the much tougher Western Conference. Strangely, they’ve not been all that good at home (7-10 SU), although they did recently defeat the Clippers by 28 here. Each of their last two wins were on the road and they were blowouts, particularly the one vs. Houston (133-84). More recently, they won in D.C., beating the Wizards 125-111 as a 1-point dog. 

Both teams have been dealing with some key absences of late and with this being the last game before the Break, most of those players figure to remain out. But it does look as if Kyle Anderson is set to return for the Grizz and he’s the team’s best outside shooter. Memphis has had a different leading scorer in each of its last three wins, so they don’t necessarily rely on one player. At the defensive end, they’ve allowed an average of just 102 points the L5 games. Having also scored at least 122 in three of the last four, the Grizzlies should easily cover tonight. 10* Memphis

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Mar 04, 2021
Southern Illinois vs Bradley
+2½ -106 at Draft Kings
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Bradley (6:00 ET): I think we’ve got ourselves a “false favorite” here in the 1st round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, meaning the WRONG team is favored. Now I’d obviously be even MORE “all in” on Bradley were they not dealing with several suspensions. But my own power ratings say the Braves should be the ones favored here over 9-seed Southern Illinois, who I think was the worst team in the entire MVC during the regular season. About a month ago, these teams split a pair of meetings in Peoria, but SIU’s win came by just a single point. 

Now those two meetings did come before the suspensions that were handed down to four Bradley players. To address the “elephant in the room,” those suspensions came about due to an ongoing police report. But the suspensions also didn’t stop the Braves from stunning Drake this past weekend, 67-61 as an 8.5-point home dog. Drake is probably a NCAA Tournament team, whether or not they win this Tournament. The previous four games had not been good for Bradley, but Saturday’s upset tells me they can still beat the worst team in the Missouri Valley. 

Southern Illinois lost a couple close ones to Loyola Chicago last weekend. One of the games even went to overtime. But this is a team that has just ONE win by greater than three points going back to the start of the 2021 calendar year! The Salukis are on a 3-0 ATS win streak right now, but were obviously huge dogs in both games against Loyola. They’ve been favored away from home (this game is in St. Louis) only one other time this season and that was the very first game (vs. SE Missouri State). Since opening 7-0 SU, they are just 4-13 SU overall. 8* Bradley


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