#62 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Winnipeg Jets Puck Line (-1.5 goals +115) over St Louis Blues, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Both clubs enter this game on losing streaks but there is a big difference between these teams right now.  St Louis is banged up with injuries and has been getting blown out on a regular basis.  Winnipeg is having a much stronger season under coach Rick Bowness (came over from Dallas before this season) but he just laid into his team after a 4-0 home shutout to the Flyers on Saturday!  That was 3rd straight loss for Jets but they have not lost 4 straight games all season long!  Also, the Jets have a rock solid goalie in Connor Hellebuyck.  Even if David Rittich starts between the pipes that would be fine as he has allowed an average of 2 goals last 2 starts.  But Hellebuyck is the expected starter here and he is one of the top goalies in the NHL.  Conversely, the Blues have allowed tons of goals as their goaltenders are struggling.  Probably it will be Jordan Binnington but whether it is him or Thomas Greiss, both have struggled in recent starts.  The Blues have allowed 4 or or more goals in 12 of 18 games.  The Jets had given up just 2.3 goals per game last 6 home games before that 4-0 loss to Philadelphia.  Coach Bowness got the attention of this team after that loss.  To a man, these players have been challenged and they will respond here.  Jets on home ice and off a home shutout and this is the final game for these clubs before the All Star break.  St Louis is hurting and missing some key guys and other guys banged up.  Jets the healthier team and on home ice and they are a big favorite on the money line but priced with value on the puck line.  Winnipeg has beaten the Blues five straight times!  The two wins this season have both been blowouts!  The Jets entered this game with last 7 wins by an average margin of 2.4 goals apiece.  St Louis has 24 losses in regulation this season and 23 of the 24 have been by at least a 2-goal margin!  Home team in a blowout per our computer math model.  Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Winnipeg is the value play here.

ASA Top Play on: Phoenix Suns -125 vs Toronto Raptors, 9:10 PM ET - We like the Suns in this match up as they have found a rhythm in their last six games going 5-1 SU and ATS. Four of those recent wins have come at home, two of them came against quality teams in Memphis and Brooklyn. Toronto has won 3 of their last four games but haven’t been great on the road overall this season at 8-16 SU. With this line being as low as it is we essentially just need the Suns to win outright. In fact, instead of laying the 1.5 points here you can take the money line -125 which is what we suggest here. Is worth just a little extra juice. Phoenix is 18-8 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.6PPG which is 9th best in the NBA. Toronto ranks 28th in overall field goal percentage defense allowing foes to hit 49% from the field. Their 3-point percentage D is worse yet as they rank 29th. Phoenix can take advantage of that weakness, especially from beyond the arc where they shoot 38.8% which is 3rd in the NBA. Defensively the Suns hold a big advantage when it comes to shooting as they allow 46.9% which is 11th best in the league. The Raptors shoot just 45.3% overall which ranks 28th. This is a great spot to buy low with Phoenix at home minus a short number.You can lay the 1.5 if you must but consider money line -125 if you can.

#874 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas -3.5 over Baylor, Monday at 9 PM ET - We’re buying low here on Texas and selling high on Baylor. The Bears have won 6 straight games while the Longhorns are coming off a double digit loss @ Tennessee on Saturday. Because of that, we’re getting some decent value here. The Bears have played 3 road games during this 6 game winning streak beating WVU by 5, Texas Tech by 7, and Oklahoma by 2. Those 3 teams currently sit in 8th, 9th, and 10th place in the 10 teams Big 12. Baylor was actually a 1.5 point underdog @ last place Texas Tech (0-8 in the Big 12) and now they are just +3.5 vs a Texas team ranked in the top 10 by KenPom, thus the line value we were speaking about. The Horns are coming off a loss as we mentioned, and they’ve done so 3 times this season bouncing back nicely with wins in all of those games. They are 12-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +18 PPG while shooting nearly 51% from the field. On the road, Baylor has a -4.5 PPG differential while making only 43% of their shots. Overall these teams both rank in the top 10 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, but on the other end of the court Texas has a solid advantage. The Bears rank dead last in the Big 12 (conference play) in adjusted defensive efficiency allowing 1.11 PPP. That will be a problem tonight vs a Texas team that averages 86 PPG at home this season. Texas played Tennessee, the top team in the SEC (#1 ranked nationally per KenPom), on the road Saturday and lost. Baylor played host to Arkansas (3-5 record in the SEC) and won by just 3 despite having huge edge at the FT line (21 made FT’s to 6 for Arkansas). We like the Horns to play with an edge at home tonight after their loss and pick up a win and cover.

#65/66 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 6.5 Goals - Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Ottawa has won 3 straight games and scored 4.3 goals per game. The Senators just blasted Montreal 5-0 Sunday so you know the Canadiens are out for revenge here in this rematch in Montreal. The Senators have allowed 3.8 goals per game last 9 road games. The Canadiens have allowed 4 goals per game last 5 games. Montreal has averaged 3 goals scored per game in last 6 home games. This sets up well to be one of those competitive high-scoring battles where each team is enjoying plenty of success in the offensive zone. Don't be surprised if this game gets to 3-3 at some point. Therefore, we look for a final tally of at least 7 in this one!  Over is our play here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 239 Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - The Bucks offense is starting to click. Milwaukee has scored 130 or more points in 5 of their last seven games. In one of those games the Bucks put up 150 points against a Pistons team that allows 1.193-points per possession. Charlotte is nearly as bad defensively allowing 1.163PPP. The Hornets are better offensively when they have point guard LaMelo Ball on the court but they’re also worse defensively. Ball returned for the Hornets two games ago and Charlotte promptly won two straight against a pair of quality teams in the Bulls and Heat. Charlotte is the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA, Milwaukee is 12th so we can bet on a higher paced game. Milwaukee is scoring 127PPG over their last five games but also allowing 117PPG. When these two teams met earlier this month they combined for 247 total points and an easy Over. Our computers are calling for roughly the same result.

#601/602 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 128 Points – Mississippi State vs South Carolina, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Two slow paced, poor shooting teams facing off here in what we expect to be a low scoring affair. Both of these teams rank outside the top 310 in adjusted tempo and both rank outside the top 330 in offensive eFG%. They rank 13th and 14th in the SEC (14 team league) in both scoring and FG%. When it comes to scoring from beyond the arc, Mississippi State has been terrible making only 28% of their triples (355th nationally) while South Carolina makes only 32%. Both teams do a good job of keeping their opponents off the FT line with MSU’s foes scoring only 16% of their points from the charity stripe and South Carolina’s opponents scoring just 15% from the line. The few times these teams get to the line tonight, it won’t be pretty with MSU making just 62% and SC just 64% of their freebies. The Bulldogs are an outstanding defensive team ranking 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 22th in eFG% defense, while allowing just 59 PPG (8th in the country). South Carolina is not a great defensive team, however with how MSU struggles to shoot the ball, the Gamecocks don’t have to be great on that end. On the road this season, the Bulldogs are averaging only 56 PPG, shooting 39% as a team, and a terrible 21% from beyond the arc. With MSU favored by 10, the projected score here is right around 70-60. The Bulldogs have gotten to 70 points since December 3rd (13 straight games) while South Carolina is averaging just 64 PPG on the season and this will be one of the better defenses they’ve faced. Under is the call here.