ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville +3 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET

These two met in early January and FSU pulled the road upset @ Louisville 78-65.  The Seminoles shot lights out in that game hitting over 50% of their shots overall and 60% of their attempts inside the arc in route to a 1.20 points per possession performance.  That was against a Louisville defense that allowed just 0.92 PPP on the season which ranks them 29th nationally.  Since that outing the Cards have played 14 games holding 11 of those teams to 1.00 PPP or less.  We expect the U of L defense to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight in this revenge match up.  Offensively a very good Louisville team (11th nationally in offensive efficiency) shot only 39% in that first meeting.  We expect the Cards to be much better on both ends tonight.  FSU is very good but they’ve had a number of games that have gone to the wire with 8 of their last 11 games decided by 6 points or less.  The Noles are also very good on defense however if they have one weakness, it’s defending the arc where they rank 9th in the ACC allowing opponents to shoot 33% in league play.  That could be a problem for them tonight facing a Louisville offense that ranks 7th nationally in 3-point percentage and they are hitting almost 41% from deep in ACC play (1st in the conference).  FSU also thrives on rebounding often dominating teams on the boards.  That won’t happen tonight vs a Louisville team that is a very good rebounding team and actually won the battle of the glass in the first meeting 37 to 32 including 19 offensive rebounds (47% of their misses).  The Cardinals had back to back losses earlier this month as they hit their bottom so to speak.  They have since regained their mojo with two blowout wins over Syracuse (by 24) and UNC (by 17).  They are 6-2 in ACC road games this year including a win @ Duke.  This is just the 3rd time Louisville has been an underdog this season with the other 2 coming @ Duke (Cards won the game) and @ Kentucky (Cards lost in OT).  The road team has won 3 of last 4 with only home team win during that run coming in OT and we’ll call for Louisville to pick up a road win tonight. 

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -8 over Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET

We like the situation as the Jazz are off a pair of bad losses to other Western Conference teams (Spurs, Rockets) following the break which will have them focused here. Phoenix has been a team we played on quite a bit early in the season and were rewarded with profits, but they’ve been fading with a 4-11 ATS record their last fifteen games. The Suns are 18th in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on the road and an average loss margin of minus -3.4PPG (17th). Utah will lock down the Suns defensively with the 4th best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA when they are at home allowing just 1.052 points per possession. Utah is 20-7 SU in Salt Lake City with an average winning margin of +6.2PPG. Granted, it was early in the season, but the Jazz were favored by -4.5-points in Phoenix this season and now laying a few more points at home? Bet the value and take Utah minus the points.