ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 215 Lakers vs Nuggets, 9 PM ET - There is still value in this Total and we like a solid UNDER bet here. The first number on this series was 210.5 in Game 1 which finished well above the Total with 240 points. Then in Game 2 the oddsmakers adjusted the line up to 215.5 and only 208 points were scored. In Game 3 the Nugs and Lakers combined for 220 total points and an over (214.5) but it took 52% and 55% shooting by both teams to get there. The Lakers shoot 48% on the season while the Nuggets shoot 47% so you can seel they het well above their normal standards. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 166 combined FG attempts but in Game 2 that total dropped to 157. In Game 3 they combined for 160 FG attempts which is still well below an average NBA game of 177 which typically results in 222 total points. Combined these two teams are on a 11-1-2 UNDER run when playing on 1 day rest. This game will be much tighter as the intensity is ramping up for both clubs. Bet UNDER.

ASA PLAY 8* ON Miami +3 over Jacksonville, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - The Jags have quickly become a public team over the first few weeks with their win over Indy as a 7-point dog and their performance last week @ Tennessee, a 3-point loss. Over 70% of the tickets have come in on Jacksonville here pushing this number from it’s opener, which was pick-em, all they way to -3. Now the value is on Miami in our opinion. The Jaguars have gone from a 7 point dog in week 1 and a 8.5 point dog in week to now to a 3-point favorite. We realize they aren’t playing the Colts or Titans here, but that is still a big swing against a Miami team that showed some life last week losing by just 3 to the surging Bills. They put up over 400 yards on one of the top defensive teams in the NFL so their offense definitely should be able to keep them in this game vs a Jacksonville defense that allowed 33 points last week to a Titan team that put up just 16 points in week 1 @ Denver. Also, in Jacksonville’s win this year vs the Colts, the were outgained by over 200 yards so that was a very misleading win in our opinion. Jax is just 13-24 ATS as a home favorite dating back to 2008 and we simply do not trust them laying a FG here as many suspected this would be one of the worst teams in the league entering the season including us. We’re not going to overreact and change that view after just 2 weeks. Miami + the points for us.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 6:37 PM ET

The Blue Jays can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight.  The Yankees are still battling for possible home field edge in their first round playoff series so they are motivated too.  After getting blasted last night by a score of 14-1, look for the Yankees to respond here.  They made 4 errors in last night's game plus loaded the bases with nobody out in the top of the 5th but failed to score!  That was when the game was still 5-1 and well within reach.  The Blue Jays have been playing their home games in Buffalo this season and Sahlen Field has played out as a very hitter friendly ballpark.  It will be another mild evening in upstate NY tonight and the bats should again rule in this one.  This total opened up at a 10 and has moved down to a 9.5 which has led to even more line value with the over in this one.  8 of the Yankees last 9 games have totaled 11 or more runs.  In fact, those 9 games have averaged a total of 14.8 runs per game and we would not be surprised to see this one get into the range of 15 runs as well.  The last time the Yankees Jordan Montgomery faced the Blue Jays he also was opposed by Toronto's Hyun Jin Ryu.  That game ended up a 12-7 Jays win.  Ryu got rocked in that one and he is 0-2 with an 8.80 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Yankees.  Montgomery also got rocked in that game and he has a 6.00 ERA in his 8 night starts this season.  Also, the Yankees southpaw is 0-1 with an 8.25 ERA in his road starts this season.  He is facing a surging Blue Jays team that hit him well earlier this month plus enters this game having won 3 of 4 games and scoring an average of 8 runs per game in those contests.  This one has the makings of another slugfest at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY.  Bet the OVER in Toronto in early evening action Thursday. 

ASA PLAY 8* ON South Alabama Jaguars (+) over UAB Blazers, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #418

This line was as low as a -5 but now has risen to as high as a -7 as of Wednesday evening.  We're going to take advantage of this line rising to the key number of 7 and fade a Blazers team that is dealing with a key injury here.  Even though the injury is to his non-throwing shoulder, starting QB Johnston is expected to be out for this game.  That means redshirt freshman Lucero would be getting his first ever start and it would be on the road.  Keep in mind, South Alabama nearly upset Tulane two weeks ago and that was on the road.  The Jaguars have been a double digit dog in each of their first two games this season and their first game saw them get the outright upset as a big home dog versus Southern Mississippi.  That said, even though UAB is a quality football team and returned a lot of starters this season, the QB situation is a precarious one to say the least and the Jaguars have proven capable of being tough on opponents that are projected to be much better than them.  Per our computer math model, some of the projections have the Jags getting the outright upset and the majority show them staying with less than a TD margin in this one.  With that being the case, the home underdog is the way to go here.  Grab the points with South Alabama in what could be a home upset in evening action Thursday.